6 Comments

Ioannidou et al: "Inflation" or deviations, positive or negative, from target inflation?

I don't know which annoys me more a) assuming control of inflation means only overshooting targets is bad or b) control of deficits means only reducing expenditures.

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Very sorry to learn about your sciatica. My wife has the same issue: an hour or more a day of exercises "merely handicapping and pain-inducing (rather than disabling and agonizing)". She gets physiotherapy too!

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Welcome to the exciting world of open source software. Getting something to work is generally a crap shoot. There is an open source tide prediction program that I like. Now and then, I try building it. Most of the time it fails with a series of inscrutable errors. I usually try two or three methods to rebuild it, but it seems to go through its own tidal cycle. When a build actually works, I carefully archive to precious compiled code and hope that it continues to work until the net alignment of the sun, moon and stars.

(I gather that this is why they developed Docker and other such encapsulation systems. Open source software is so sensitive to the existing system environment that making it reliable requires a complete encapsulation of the code, the libraries, the configuration and whatever else. Unfortuantely, Docker is open source software, so using it has all the same problems as using any piece of open source software.)

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What if we called Artificial Intelligence simply Predictive Analytics using Large Language Models?

Would the hype decline? After all, who likes a statistics course and who knows what LLM's are.

That said, I agree that if one didn't have to learn R or Python, and simply state to a computer: Regress this column of data against these three variables, yada ,yada ,yada...the world would be better off.

I am looking forward to an Excel spreadsheet with AI.

Maybe it will do my taxes for me too!

ChatbotGPT: Compute Bill's taxes with the data in my checking, savings, brokerage and credit card accounts with information from the attached W-2s.

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The problem with that is why humans speak to each other in jargon. Human language is full of ambiguity. It's a rare sentence that cannot be interpreted in more than one way. So, if you work in a machine shop, a hospital, a cockpit, a courtroom or in any number of other places where one must make oneself understood quickly and with minimal chance of misunderstanding, one uses a highly stylized language with a well defined terminology. Odds are good that there was an explicit training course involved.

I think that it is possible to have an Excel spreadsheet driven by something that looks a lot like natural language, but it is probably going to require using a specialized vocabulary and most attempts at developing such a system will wind up more like Applescript than anything human. Applescript is noted for looking a lot like English, so it is pretty readable, but as soon as one starts coding its essential nature becomes clear - and frustrating.

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Golly, sciatica! The Lord knows that so many of us have it and yet doesn't do anything.

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