I really do not like the concept of "stance." The Fed is steering a massive vessel through a narrow passage between insufficient and excessive inflation. Its only "stance" should be hands on the wheel, leaning slightly forward peering out into the fog.
Brad, looking into the components of the LEI, a lot of this dive is about the inverted yield curve (10-year minus Fed Funds). There is broader weakness in interest-rate sensitive stuff, too. Some manufacturing sector distress. But the big downward direction of this indicator is from a yield-curve type of inversion.
I prefer to look at TIPS in relation to target.
I really do not like the concept of "stance." The Fed is steering a massive vessel through a narrow passage between insufficient and excessive inflation. Its only "stance" should be hands on the wheel, leaning slightly forward peering out into the fog.
"Do not confuse the policy rate at the moment with the stance of monetary policy!" Bingo!
Brad, looking into the components of the LEI, a lot of this dive is about the inverted yield curve (10-year minus Fed Funds). There is broader weakness in interest-rate sensitive stuff, too. Some manufacturing sector distress. But the big downward direction of this indicator is from a yield-curve type of inversion.
Yes! and, If I may, PPI deflation in China began last fall and the CPI deflation began there a few months ago.