Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Semi-Weekly; Aspirationally an hour or less. Key Insights: 1. Yes, it is possible...
Taxes: He could have just said we need a progressive personal consumption tax.
EITC/wage subsidy: Yes! I have never understood the argument for UBI vs an aggressive EITC.
No negative ST interest rates problem? Could be, but since the Fed has other instruments: QE, FX purchases which they could have used and did not 2008-20 it THAT really a constraint?
Fed interest rate increases have had NO effect so far? Why would expectations outside the TIPS markets be different from the TIPS traders?
Monetary policy 101 principle ought to be never announce future settings of policy instruments!
Missed chance to push for intermediate tenor TIPS!
"Missed chance to push for intermediate tenor TIPS!"
Interesting. I wonder if the FOMC should be operating in the inflation swaps market. The commitment signals and feedback risks don't seem that different from repo market operations (except inherently of longer tenors, obviously.)
Taxes: He could have just said we need a progressive personal consumption tax.
EITC/wage subsidy: Yes! I have never understood the argument for UBI vs an aggressive EITC.
No negative ST interest rates problem? Could be, but since the Fed has other instruments: QE, FX purchases which they could have used and did not 2008-20 it THAT really a constraint?
Fed interest rate increases have had NO effect so far? Why would expectations outside the TIPS markets be different from the TIPS traders?
Monetary policy 101 principle ought to be never announce future settings of policy instruments!
Missed chance to push for intermediate tenor TIPS!
"Missed chance to push for intermediate tenor TIPS!"
Interesting. I wonder if the FOMC should be operating in the inflation swaps market. The commitment signals and feedback risks don't seem that different from repo market operations (except inherently of longer tenors, obviously.)
I would not worry about trading in a GDP futures market, but leave the (expanded) TIPS markets as indicators of market sentiment.
A Treasury security that paid 0.00000x% of GDP could be useful as well. Would that be legally a debt to which the absurd "debt ceiling" applies?
"Noah Smith’s mother is a good friend of “Murderbot” author Martha Wells."
This is by far the coolest thing I know about Noah
I did some searches in Chinese about China and spy balloons last night and came across a 2011 article that describes in very emotional and nationalistic way (just like these days) spy incursions into the PRC in the 1970s. 1974：U.S. Balloons Invaded PRC Airspace, Zhou Enlai Furious Orders Destroy It At All Costs uploaded my translation to https://gaodawei.wordpress.com/2023/02/06/1974%ef%bc%9au-s-balloons-invaded-prc-airspace-zhou-enlai-furious-orders-destroy-it-at-all-costs/
Re the discussion of "The Narrow Corridor," some guy named Shakespeare seems to have riffed Brad's point:
"It is excellent to have a giant's strength,
but it is tyrannous to use it like a giant”
-Measure for Measure
:-)