PODCAST: “Hexapodia” is þe Key Insight! XLVI: Þe One Where We Talk About Everything, wiþ Special Guest Miles Kimball

Key Insights:

1. Yes, it is possible to talk about everything in an hour…

2. We are not very far apart on what the Fed is doing and should be doing—there is only a 100 basis-point disagreement…

3. Miles would be 100% right about the proper stance of monetary policy if he were in control of the Fed…

4. Miles is not in control of the Fed…

5. Thus Brad thinks that asymmetric risks strongly militate for pausing for six months, and then moving rapidly…

6. Smart people need to think much more about how to increase love…

7. Remember Robot Tarktil!

8. Noah Smith’s mother is a good friend of “Murderbot” author Martha Wells…

9. Hexapodia!!

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References:

• Robert Barsky, Christopher House, & Miles Kimball: Sticky-Price Models and Durable Goods <https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/aer.97.3.984>

• Daron Acemoglu & James Robinson: The Narrow Corridor <https://archive.org/details/TheNarrowCorridor/mode/1up>

• Mancur Olson: The Rise & Decline of Nations <https://archive.org/details/risedeclineofnat00olso/page/209/mode/2up>

• Thomas Hobbes: Leviathan <https://archive.org/details/leviathan00hobb_1>

• John Locke: Second Treatise of Government <https://archive.org/details/criticaleditionw0000unse>

• Edward Bellamy: Looking Backward <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Looking_Backward>

• Robin Hanson: The Age of Em <https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Age_of_Em>

• Ruchir Agarwal & Miles Kimball: The Future of Inflation”: in Finance & Development <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2022/4/7/the-future-of-inflationruchir-agarwal-and-miles-kimball>; IMF Podcasts <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2022/4/14/imf-podcast-ruchir-agarwal-and-miles-kimball-on-negative-interest-rates-and-inflation>

• Miles Kimball: Bibliographic Post on Negative Interest Rate Policy: "How and Why to Eliminate the Zero Lower Bound: A Reader’s Guide” <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/emoney>

• Miles Kimball: How a Toolkit Lacking a Full Strength Negative Interest Rate Option Led to the Current Inflationary Surge <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2022/9/5/how-a-toolkit-lacking-a-full-strength-negative-interest-rate-option-led-to-the-current-inflationary-surge>;

• Miles Kimball: How Having Negative Interest Rate Policy in Its Toolkit Would Make the Fed Braver in Confronting Inflation with Needed Rate Hikes—A Tweetstorm” <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2022/12/28/how-having-negative-interest-rate-policy-in-its-toolkit-would-make-the-fed-braver-in-confronting-inflation-with-needed-rate-hikesa-tweetstorm>

• Miles Kimball: Brad DeLong Confirms that Not Having Negative Interest Rate Policy in the Monetary Policy Toolkit Makes People Afraid of Vigorous Rate Hikes to Control Inflation” <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2022/10/1/brad-delong-confirms-that-not-having-negative-interest-rate-policy-in-the-monetary-policy-toolkit-makes-people-afraid-of-vigorous-rate-hikes-to-control-inflation>;

• Miles Kimball: Serious silliness:

  Miles Kimball @mileskimball

  Serious silliness: “There are re­ally good rea­sons for them to slow down if they can..I think they want to avoid paus­ing only to have to re-hike later, and get­ting down to 25 ba­sis points al­lows them the best chance of avoid­ing that pos­si­bil­ity”

  

  wsj.comFed Raises Rate by 0.5 Percentage Point, Signals More Increases LikelyMost of the central bankers penciled in plans to raise rates above 5% next year, higher than previously expected.

• Miles Kimball: On the Fed’s 3/4% hikes:

Miles Kimball @mileskimball

On the Fed’s 3/4% hikes this year: “‘What’s im­pressed me to no end is it hasn’t bro­ken any­thing. For all the talk of crash­ing the econ­omy & break­ing the fi­nan­cial mar­kets, it hasn’t done that,’ said Fed gov­er­nor Christo­pher Waller last month”

wsj.comFed Raises Rate by 0.5 Percentage Point, Signals More Increases LikelyMost of the central bankers penciled in plans to raise rates above 5% next year, higher than previously expected.

• Miles Kimball: ”Next Generation Monetary Policy” <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2017/2/1/next-generation-monetary-policy>

• Miles Kimball: Tweetstorm of Favorite Passages from Noah Smith's Review of Brad DeLong's book Slouching Towards Utopia <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2022/12/12/miless-tweetstorm-of-favorite-passages-from-noah-smiths-review-of-brad-delongs-book-slouching-towards-utopia>

• Miles Kimball: On the Age of Em <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2019/8/18/on-being-a-copy-of-someones-mind> <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2019/9/29/will-your-uploaded-mind-still-be-youmichael-graziano> <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2020/7/5/space-travel-and-uploaded-humans> <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2020/8/2/consensual-non-solipsistic-experience-machines> <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2020/9/13/embodiment>

• Miles Kimball: On Consciousness <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/94309255267/the-mystery-of-consciousness> <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2019/8/4/on-the-effability-of-the-ineffable> <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2019/12/22/christof-koch-will-machines-ever-become-conscious> <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/39212472423/cyborgian-immortality> <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2020/2/2/frank-wilczek-are-we-living-in-a-simulated-world> <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2019/10/27/the-virtuality-reality-theory-of-dualism>

• Miles Kimball: The Decline of Drudgery and the Paradox of Hard Work <https://www.nber.org/papers/w29041>

• Miles Kimball: The Potential of a National Well-Being Index <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2021/12/16/podcast-miles-kimball-on-the-potential-of-a-national-well-being-index> <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/47017089094/quartz-8-judging-the-nations-wealth-and> <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2017/7/10/why-gdp-can-grow-forever>

• Miles Kimball: My Experiences with Gary Becker <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/84824118992/my-experiences-with-gary-becker> <https://anderson-review.ucla.edu/the-unhappy-quest-for-a-happiness-index/>

• Miles Kimball: Benjamin Franklin's Strategy to Make the US a Superpower Worked Once, Why Not Try It Again? <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/60999482427/quartz-28-benjamin-franklins-strategy-to-make>

• Miles Kimball: Life Coaching <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2020/9/10/how-economists-can-enhance-their-scientific-creativity-impact-and-engagement> <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2020/10/19/testimonials-for-positive-intelligence-1>

• Miles Kimball: Odious Wealth <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/93469513195/quartz-50-odious-wealth-the-outrage-is-not-so>

• Miles Kimball: Oren Cass on the Value of Work <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2018/12/6/oren-cass-on-the-value-of-work-2>

• Miles Kimball: Janet Yellen is Hardly a Dove—She Knows the US Economy Needs Some Unemployment <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/63725670856/janet-yellen-is-hardly-a-dove-she-knows-the-us>

• Miles Kimball: How and Why to Expand the Nonprofit Sector: A Reader’s Guide <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/133246182760/how-and-why-to-expand-the-nonprofit-sector-as-a>

• Miles Kimball: On John Locke's Second Treatise <https://blog.supplysideliberal.com/post/2019/10/20/miles-kimball-on-john-lockes-second-treatise>

+, of course:

• Vernor Vinge: A Fire Upon the Deep <https://archive.org/details/fireupondeep00ving_0/mode/1up>