Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
Hexapodia Is the Key Insight! By Noah Smith & Brad DeLong
PODCAST: Hexapodia LVII: The "Vibecession" Is Losing Its Vibe
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PODCAST: Hexapodia LVII: The "Vibecession" Is Losing Its Vibe

Producer Confidence & Consumer Confidence (in the Economy), & Our Confidence (in Our Analyses): Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally...
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Producer Confidence & Consumer Confidence (in the Economy), & Our Confidence (in Our Analyses): Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...

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Key Insights:

  1. The disjunction between all the economic data having been very good and very strong for the past year and tons of reports and commentary about how people “weren’t feeling it” is mostly the result of the fact that things work with lags.

  2. There are other factors: partisan politics, and the insistence of Republicans that they must not only vote but also at least say that they agree with their tribe.

  3. There are other factors: the old journalistic adage that “what bleeds, leads”, exponentiated by the effects of our current short attention-span clickbait culture.

  4. There are other factors: journalists, commentators, and the rest of the shouting class are depressed as their industries collapse around them, and somewhat of their situation leaks through.

  5. There are other factors: while people think they personally are doing well, they do remember stories of others not doing wellm and are concerned.

  6. But mostly it was just that things operate with lags: that was the major source of the “vibecession” gloom-and-doom which was at sharp variance with the actual economic dataflow.

  7. We are not the modelers: we are, rather, the agents in the model.

  8. The metanarrative is always harder than the narrative: trying to answer “why don’t people say they think the economy is good?” is very hard to answer in a non-stupid way, and most of us are much better off just saying: “hey, guys, the economy is really good!”

  9. It is good to be long reality—as long as you are not so leveraged that your position gets sold out from under you before the market marks itself to reality,.

  10. Lags gotta lag.

  11. And, finally, hexapodia!

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