My June column, on the vital importance for China of a separate government controlling the island of Taiwan. China is not a country but rather a civilization, and so centralization is extremely inappropriate for the long haul. Where would China be now if its armies had rolled into Hong Kong and Taiwan in 1949, and if those territories, too, had been subject to the tender mercies of the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution? China today would then be desperately poor, and desperately weak…
Xi in particular has a very fragile ego (he can't even tolerate being compared to Winnie the Pooh) and is going to make a lot of horrendous decisions. Central authority is already weak on areas where it SHOULD be strong, like suppressing coal-burning (orders from central are don't burn coal, but many provincial governors have just been ignoring it). I think his obsession with centralization is because he's already lost; central control in China is already gone, and he's trying to make sure nobody notices. I see either collapse and warring states in China's near future, or more likely, a palace coup to oust Xi and put in someone competent instead.
That's the most optimistic article I have read in a long time! (Joking.) We can be fairly sure Xi pays no attention to the professor. So the next question is how will China act out when things do not go as (centrally) planned? And what are the best policies we and other liberal societies can adopt to mitigate the effects? Containment policy, anyone?
Xi in particular has a very fragile ego (he can't even tolerate being compared to Winnie the Pooh) and is going to make a lot of horrendous decisions. Central authority is already weak on areas where it SHOULD be strong, like suppressing coal-burning (orders from central are don't burn coal, but many provincial governors have just been ignoring it). I think his obsession with centralization is because he's already lost; central control in China is already gone, and he's trying to make sure nobody notices. I see either collapse and warring states in China's near future, or more likely, a palace coup to oust Xi and put in someone competent instead.
That's the most optimistic article I have read in a long time! (Joking.) We can be fairly sure Xi pays no attention to the professor. So the next question is how will China act out when things do not go as (centrally) planned? And what are the best policies we and other liberal societies can adopt to mitigate the effects? Containment policy, anyone?