"Authoritarian closed societies always lose to open democracies in the long run"
Fortunately I'd finished my coffee before reading this, no liquid damage.
All systems collapse in the long run but I don't think we're playing rock-paper-scissors, as the remark would suggest. Not intended as a factual statement I suppose.
" The biggest package of tax cuts in 50 years – funded by borrowing – was an irrational fiscal policy…"
Isn't ANY size tax cut funded by borrowing bad? Isn't this the conventional wisdom (outside of "media macro"/NYT pundit types) since Reagan/GWB and Trump/Ryan did it?
Still a proud member of Team Transitory. The supply chain chaos had moved from the ports to the Midwest. C.f. Wall Street story about rail congestion in Chicago, the beating heart of distribution in this country. Putin's crazy war hasn't helped. I'm fearful that the Fed had already tightened too fast and too far. There is substantial evidence of disinflation across the reconning. No doubt the Board of Governors' banker friends are pleased. The rest of the country will soon be suffering.
While there is a lot of silly inflation hawk ranting about 2021 Fed policy (and even more about deficit ranting unheard of course when Trump was President), I still think it is worthwhile thinking about how it could have been better at each point given the information available at the time including "information" about what the "true" parameters of of the model linking policy instruments and outcomes.
a) It seems to me that the Fed in early 2021 should not just have been "predicting" that inflation would be temporary, but insisting that it would make sure it WAS.
b) It seem to me that the time to act and be seen as acting should have come sooner, at least as soon as TIPS began moving away from target in September.
c) Wouldn't a rolling self evaluation of past actions (sking these kinds of questions) be a useful feature of Fed press conferences after each OMO meeting?
"Authoritarian closed societies always lose to open democracies in the long run"
Fortunately I'd finished my coffee before reading this, no liquid damage.
All systems collapse in the long run but I don't think we're playing rock-paper-scissors, as the remark would suggest. Not intended as a factual statement I suppose.
" The biggest package of tax cuts in 50 years – funded by borrowing – was an irrational fiscal policy…"
Isn't ANY size tax cut funded by borrowing bad? Isn't this the conventional wisdom (outside of "media macro"/NYT pundit types) since Reagan/GWB and Trump/Ryan did it?
Still a proud member of Team Transitory. The supply chain chaos had moved from the ports to the Midwest. C.f. Wall Street story about rail congestion in Chicago, the beating heart of distribution in this country. Putin's crazy war hasn't helped. I'm fearful that the Fed had already tightened too fast and too far. There is substantial evidence of disinflation across the reconning. No doubt the Board of Governors' banker friends are pleased. The rest of the country will soon be suffering.
While there is a lot of silly inflation hawk ranting about 2021 Fed policy (and even more about deficit ranting unheard of course when Trump was President), I still think it is worthwhile thinking about how it could have been better at each point given the information available at the time including "information" about what the "true" parameters of of the model linking policy instruments and outcomes.
a) It seems to me that the Fed in early 2021 should not just have been "predicting" that inflation would be temporary, but insisting that it would make sure it WAS.
b) It seem to me that the time to act and be seen as acting should have come sooner, at least as soon as TIPS began moving away from target in September.
c) Wouldn't a rolling self evaluation of past actions (sking these kinds of questions) be a useful feature of Fed press conferences after each OMO meeting?