Brad DeLong's Grasping Reality
Hexapodia Is the Key Insight! By Noah Smith & Brad DeLong
PODCAST: Hexapodia LII: Growth, Development, China, the Solow Model, & the Future of South & Southeast Asia
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PODCAST: Hexapodia LII: Growth, Development, China, the Solow Model, & the Future of South & Southeast Asia

Noah Smith & Brad DeLong Record the Podcast We, at Least, Would Like to Listen to!; Aspirationally Bi-Weekly (Meaning Every Other Week); Aspirationally an hour...
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Key Insights:

  1. The Chinese Communist Party is very like an aristocracy—or maybe it isn’t…

  2. If it is, it will in the long run have the same strong growth-retarding effects on the economy that aristocracies traditionally have…

  3. Or maybe it won’t: China today is not Europe in the 1600s…

  4. We probably will not be able to get Noah to read Franklin Ford: Robe & Sword: The Regrouping of the French Nobility After Louis XIV <https://archive.org/details/robesword0000unse_g7d2> to dive more deeply into analogies & contrasts…

  5. Southeast Asia’s future is very bright because of friendshoring…

  6. India’s future is likely to be rather bright too—it looks like a much better economic partner for the rest of the world over the next two generations than does China…

  7. You can get pretty far by just massively forcing your society to build lots and lots and lots of capital…

  8. Especially if you have an outside country you can point to and say “give me one—or five—of those!”…

  9. But quantity of investment has a quality of its own only so far…

  10. We think of technology as the hard stuff…

  11. But actually the hard stuff is institutions, property rights, government—people actually doing what they said they would do, rather than exerting their social power to welsh on their commitments…

  12. We are surprised and amazed at China's technological excellence in electric vehicles, in battery and solar technology, in high-speed rail, and so forth…

  13. But those are relatively small slices of what a truly prosperous economy needs…

  14. For everything else, we have reason to fear that the logics of soft budget constraints and authoritarian systems are not things China will be able to evade indefinitely…

  15. Is that a middle-income trap? It certainly functions like one…

  16. Hexapodia!

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References:

Drezner’s World
The End of the Rise of China?
Late August is a time when many of you go on vacation, intent on reading for pleasure rather than, say, keeping up on current events. For those vacation-goers reading this, thanks for even bothering to skim this particular newsletter — aren’t you sweet!! Go take a nap on the beach or something…
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  • Daniel W. Drezner: The Rising Dangers of a Falling China

Drezner’s World
The Rising Dangers of a Falling China
As noted in this space yesterday, the number of stories and deep dives into China’s faltering economy has reached tsunami levels and that, “the discourse is starting to catch up to the reality that maybe, just maybe, Chinese power has peaked.” The hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World does not want to re-litigate that qu…
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  • Daniel W. Drezner: Can U.S. Domestic Politics Cope With a Falling China?

Drezner’s World
Can U.S. Domestic Politics Cope With a Falling China?
Two days ago the hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World made the case for the recognition that perhaps China had peaked. You can read that argument here. Yesterday the hard-working staff here at Drezner’s World argued that if China’s rise has plateaued and seems to be reversing, the best thing the United States can do …
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  • Arpit GuptaWhat's Going on with China's Stagnation?

Arpitrage
What's Going on with China's Stagnation?
The Narratives of Chinese Decline Like you, I’ve been curiously reading headlines about the stagnation in Chinese growth, and wondering what’s going on. There’s an ongoing debate between two schools of thought behind why China is now facing growth hurdles, as Adam Tooze…
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Noahpinion
Real estate is China's economic Achilles heel
This is the second in a short series of posts about China’s economy. The first post, from last week, was entitled “Where China is beating the world”. I once joked to a friend that if I were a CIA operative and I wanted to slow down China’s economy, I’d try to get everyone in the country to be obsessed with real estat…
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  • Noah Smith: Why is China smashing its tech industry?

Noahpinion
Why is China smashing its tech industry?
Those who pay attention to business news have probably noted an interesting and curious phenomenon over the past few months: China is smashing its internet companies. It started — or at least, most people in the U.S. started noticing it — when the government effectively…
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  • Adam Tooze: Whither China? Part I - Authoritarian impasse?

Chartbook
Chartbook 232: Whither China? Part I - Authoritarian impasse?
Whither China? With the inflation (or should we say price shock) drama in the West largely played out, there is no story more important in the world economy right now than the question of China’s future. The mood on China has shifted spectacularly in the last 18 months. Whereas once the prevailing impression was one of awe, now what prevails is a negati…
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  • Adam Tooze: Whither China? Part II - Posen v. Pettis or "authoritarian impasse" v. "structural dead-end”

Chartbook
Chartbook 233: Whither China? Part II - Posen v. Pettis or "authoritarian impasse" v. "structural dead-end"
In interpreting China’s current economic difficulties fundamental issues of analytical approach are at stake, which I have started a Chartbook mini-series to address the issue. What might be called the “authoritarian impasse” (on second thoughts I’ve amended the…
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  • Adam Tooze: Whither China? Part III: Policy hubris and the end of infallibility

Chartbook
Chartbook 234: Whither China? Part III: Policy hubris and the end of infallibility
China’s economy is in trouble because its authoritarian demons are catching up with it and paralyzing the private sector. China’s economy is in trouble because its growth model exhausted itself and entrenched power structures make it hard to shift gear…
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